Follow-up on lousy statistics (from The Economist)

The IMF’s 2019 annual report on Tanzania raised concerns about the official GDP numbers numbers and noted that the government’s “unpredictable or interventionist policies…could lead to meagre (or even negative) growth.” The Tanzanian president blocked the report’s release.

If Tanzania’s economy grew by almost 7% in the fiscal year to the end of June 2019, why did tax revenue fall by 1%? And why has bank lending to companies slumped? Private data are bad, too. In 2019 sales at the biggest brewer fell by 5%. Sales of cement by the two biggest producers were almost flat.

The discrepancies are so large that it is hard to avoid the conclusion that the government is lying. But the government does things like closing a newspaper for publishing accurate exchange rates.

Lying is bad for democracy: without reliable numbers, it is hard for voters to hold governments to account. Lies are also bad for governance: it is hard to craft good policies without knowing what works. Because accurate numbers matter so much, donors spend almost $700m a year helping poor countries collect them. The World Bank even gave Tanzania a $30m loans to improve its statistics bureau. What was the point, if the IMF buckles to political pressure and professes to believe codswallop?

Paul Romer’s “charter cities” are basically like special economic zones

• Some countries have freeports, where companies have import components duty-free, but are required to use those imports only for exports.
• Romer’s bigger idea was that the “charter cities” would serve as injections of A, that would then seep into the rest of the economy.
• Before 1997, a UK thinks tank proposed allowing Hong Kong’s people to resettle on a barren island in the northern UK. “Bring the right A, and the K and L will come.”
• Shenzhen and other zones were used as pilots for free-market reforms in commerce, finance, and industry
• Saudi Arabia is now building Neom, a high-tech city with laws and regulations separate from the Kingdom.

1.Explain trends in global population growth over time.

2.Explain the determinants of population growth and the demographic transition.

3.Explain how different determinants shape fertility decisions.

4.Explain why countries may use family planning to reduce population growth.

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